What Are the Odds My Home Sells at My Price?

A comparative market analysis helps develop a pricing recommendation using comparable properties and market evidence. Sell Odds adds a different kind of evidence to that conversation: it estimates the probability of selling at different asking prices, using actual sold and unsold listing outcomes, including what happens to the odds if the home lists ten thousand higher or lower. It selects true comparables through eight filtering gates, builds a price elasticity curve for the specific home, and reads the CRMLS record of both outcomes the market produces: homes that sold and homes that did not. The listings that never sold are part of the record too, and Sell Odds weighs them alongside the sales.

What the engine hands a seller is a Probabilistic Marketing Analysis, a PMA: the estimated probability of a sale at the asking price under consideration, and how that probability changes across nearby prices. The read is evidence for a pricing conversation with Greg Anderson of Arroyo Casa, the real estate agent and adviser who built the engine. It is not an appraisal.

How does Sell Odds calculate the odds?

Eight filtering gates select the comparable listings, each included once, at the last asking price it carried: sold if it closed, unsold if it expired or was withdrawn or canceled. The estimated probability at a price comes from where that price sits against what those homes were asking when they sold and when they did not, and from how often homes like this one sell nearby, and a price elasticity curve shows how it moves across asking prices. The model is tested on listings it has never seen. Because it weighs sold and unsold outcomes together, the answer reflects both rather than a hand picked set of favorable sales.

Why do unsold listings matter to my odds?

Because they are outcomes the record actually holds. An unsold listing establishes that a home, offered at a price, did not produce a sale during that listing period. One tells you little on its own. A pattern of them near a price level, sitting beside the closed sales, changes the picture, and a read built only on sales never sees it. Sell Odds learns from both outcomes, which is why its answer at a price is a probability rather than a single confident number.

What do I do with the read?

Bring it into the pricing conversation. Greg Anderson runs the read on request and sits down with the seller over the curve: the odds at the price you want, the odds on either side of it, and what the record says about the trade. The house gets its own assessment in person, because the record and the property together set the strategy. What happens after the read, preparing, pricing and presenting the house, is in Selling an Architectural Home.

Can I try it on a real home?

Yes. The Live Demo on this site opens the working engine. Search a home and see the read for yourself.

Who built Sell Odds?

Greg Anderson of Arroyo Casa, a REALTOR licensed in California since 1990, DRE# 01071792, practicing with Keller Williams Executive in Alhambra. Before real estate became his full time work he built and remodeled homes for twenty years, and he built Sell Odds to price the homes he serves from evidence. The story is on the About page, and his reference library on San Gabriel Valley architectural homes is at library.arroyocasa.com.

Is a Sell Odds read an appraisal?

No. An appraisal is a licensed appraiser's opinion of value prepared for a specific purpose, most often a lender's. A Sell Odds read is an automated analysis of the CRMLS record: an estimated value from closed sales, and the estimated probability of selling at given prices from sold and unsold outcomes. Its numbers are estimates, not a promise of any sale or sale price, and it does not replace an appraisal where a lender or a court requires one.