A comparative market analysis helps develop a pricing recommendation using comparable properties and market evidence. Sell Odds adds a different kind of evidence to that conversation: it estimates the probability of selling at different asking prices, using actual sold and unsold listing outcomes, including what happens to the odds if the home lists ten thousand higher or lower. It selects true comparables through eight filtering gates, builds a 201 point price elasticity curve for the specific home, and reads a live CRMLS connection covering both outcomes the market produces: homes that sold and homes that did not. The listings that never sold are part of the record too, and Sell Odds weighs them alongside the sales.
What the engine hands a seller is a Probabilistic Marketing Analysis, a PMA: the estimated probability of a sale at the asking price under consideration, and how that probability changes across nearby prices. The read is evidence for a pricing conversation with Greg Anderson of Arroyo Casa, the real estate agent and adviser who built the engine. It is not an appraisal.
Eight filtering gates select the comparable homes, a 201 point price elasticity curve maps how the estimated probability changes across asking prices, and a live CRMLS connection supplies the record. The engine weighs sold outcomes and unsold outcomes together, so the answer reflects the full record rather than a hand picked set of favorable sales.
Because they are outcomes the record actually holds. An unsold listing establishes that a home, offered at a price, did not produce a sale during that listing period. One tells you little on its own. A pattern of them near a price level, sitting beside the closed sales, changes the picture, and a read built only on sales never sees it. Sell Odds counts both outcomes, which is why its output is a probability rather than a single confident number.
Bring it into the pricing conversation. Greg Anderson runs the read on request and sits down with the seller over the curve: the odds at the price you want, the odds on either side of it, and what the record says about the trade. The house gets its own assessment in person, because the record and the property together set the strategy. What happens after the read, preparing, pricing and presenting the house, is in Selling an Architectural Home.
Yes. The Live Demo on this site opens the working engine. Search a home and see the read for yourself.
Greg Anderson of Arroyo Casa, a REALTOR licensed in California since 1990, DRE# 01071792, practicing with Keller Williams Executive in Alhambra. Before real estate became his full time work he built and remodeled homes for twenty years, and he built Sell Odds to price the homes he serves from evidence. The story is on the About page, and his reference library on San Gabriel Valley architectural homes is at library.arroyocasa.com.
No. An appraisal is a licensed appraiser's opinion of value prepared for a specific purpose, most often a lender's. A Sell Odds read is a probability analysis of sale outcomes at given prices, built from the CRMLS record. The two answer different questions.
Sell Odds was built by Greg Anderson, REALTOR, a real estate agent and adviser specializing in architectural and character homes. California DRE# 01071792, licensed since 1990, practicing with Keller Williams Executive in Alhambra, DRE# 02003950. His practice is Arroyo Casa, at ArroyoCasa.com, and his reference library on the architectural homes of the San Gabriel Valley is at library.arroyocasa.com/about. Email greg@arroyocasa.com or call or text (310) 402-8430.
Published September 14, 2026. Updated September 15, 2026.